Je posledná správa IPCC príliš pesimistická?

Autor: Alexander Ač | 20.10.2016 o 12:50 | Karma článku: 1,03 | Prečítané:  237x

Obrázky pre pripravovaný článok na Skeptical Science o tom, že niektoré aspekty správy IPCC podhodnocujú rýchlost klimatickej zmeny a jej dosledkov.

Fig. 1: Performance of climate models from two recent IPCC reports. Graph on the left is updated version of Stroeve et al. 2007 and graph on the left is a combination of Arctic sea ice reconstruction + satellite measurements according to Pirón and Pasalodos 2016 and updated with NSIDC data compared to ensemble RCP scenarios used in the IPCC report. Horizontal black line shows average of September sea ice minimum from 2007 to 2016.

Fig. 2: Comparison of various projections of the sea level by the end of the century. Linear extrapolation of current rise would give us a prognosis by IPCC AR4, some speed up can be expected according to IPCC AR5, and even higher sea level rise should be expected based on semi-empirical models (Rahmstorf et al. 2012) not included in the IPCC report (IPCC AR5 likely range is for RCP 8.5 scenario (Grinsted 2014)). 

Fig. 3: Projections of SLR according to the latest IPCC report (20y average at the end of the century). Note that there is a good chance that Antarctica will gain ice on a net basis irrespective of emission scenario. Blue dot with vertical line show estimate of SLR from Antarctica by DeConto and Pollard (2016), i.e. 1.05 m ± 30 cm in 2100 (20y average of their estimate would be somewhat lower). Even the more conservative estimate of up to 30 cm SLR from Antarctica is significantly more than is indicated by IPCC (Ritz et al., 2015).

Fig. 4: Results based in feelings about climate change of 43 climate scientists. Those who expressed both hope and optimism are counted once, same for the pessimism/despair/depression group. Several researchers expressed both hope and despair or depression and are represented in both groups. Those who did not explicitly express any of these feelings are not shown. (Source:  http://www.isthishowyoufeel.com).

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